Supply driven trucking market cycle explained in the data

According to a report from FreightWaves, the U.S. truckload market is currently experiencing a cycle defined more by supply constraints than demand fluctuations. Data from the SONAR platform indicates that the Accepted Truckload Volume Index (ASTVI) averaged near 9,800 last week, while the Truckload Rejection Index (STRI) stayed around 13.5%. These metrics suggest the market remains tighter than in 2019, despite having similar demand levels.

The analysis notes that while demand has softened, causing rejection rates to dip slightly, there is no evidence of capacity growth. Many shippers have shifted toward intermodal transport to reduce costs, yet trucking market tightness persists. Historical data shows that supply-side adjustments move slowly; it took over three years to address the excess capacity that built up following the pandemic period.

Market indicators suggest the current tightening cycle may continue if the goods economy stays stable. Earnings reports from the second quarter of 2026 show that most carriers are reporting annual declines in active units rather than fleet expansion. Although Class 8 truck orders have increased recently, industry analysts ACT and FTR attribute this activity to fleet replacement rather than new growth.

Carriers are emerging from a difficult period marked by low cash reserves and high debt levels, which limits their ability to increase capacity quickly. Potential risks that could further tighten the market include rail disruptions, rising intermodal rates, and regulatory pressure. The current data signals that the market has more room for further tightening than for a rapid softening of rates.