New research shows how regulation could reshape shipping
New research from DNV suggests that regulatory uncertainty is becoming a primary driver of fleet strategy as shipowners navigate diverse decarbonization pathways.
A new report from Hellenic Shipping News detailing DNV’s Maritime Forecast to 2050 indicates that global shipping has moved beyond conceptual technology into a phase of commercial reality for alternative fuels. However, vessel owners now face significant challenges in making long-term investment decisions due to unprecedented regulatory ambiguity. The report suggests that future competitiveness will depend on a fleet's ability to remain viable across multiple possible international and regional policy outcomes.
DNV lead author Øyvind Sekkesæter notes that while fuel choices are uncertain, energy-efficiency improvements consistently create value regardless of which regulatory scenario unfolds. The research highlights that retrofitting existing vessels with hydrodynamic enhancements, such as propeller upgrades and bow modifications, can be highly cost-effective. A case study of a 15-year-old containership showed that a $2.35 million investment could yield fuel savings of roughly 16%, with payback periods as short as 1.4 years.
The analysis also tracks a significant rise in alternative-fuel-capable tonnage, which grew from 0.4% in 2020 to over 5% in 2024. While LNG and methanol currently lead the transition, many dual-fuel vessels still operate on conventional fuel oils because low-emission alternatives remain expensive and lack sufficient regulatory incentives. The uptake is most pronounced in the car carrier and cruise sectors, while bulkers and tankers lag behind due to different trading patterns.
Future demand for low-greenhouse gas fuels is expected to fluctuate significantly based on global policy ambition, potentially reaching up to 185 million tonnes of oil equivalent by 2050. Shipping must compete for these resources with the aviation and power sectors, particularly for limited supplies of biofuels. While bunkering infrastructure for LNG and methanol is expanding in Europe and East Asia, the availability of low-carbon ammonia remains in its earliest stages of development.
Helena Marsh — Energy Markets Editor. Helena covers crude, refined products and the trading houses that move them, with a focus on price formation in the Mediterranean and Black Sea.
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