Oil's New Normal Is Higher Prices
Analysts at Standard Chartered have increased their long-term oil price outlooks as regional instability in the Middle East and structural supply tightness create a new market baseline.
According to a report from OilPrice.com, commodity analysts at Standard Chartered have raised their oil price projections for 2026 and 2027. The bank now expects Brent crude to average $92.00 per barrel in 2026, an increase from its earlier estimate of $85.50. Similarly, the forecast for West Texas Intermediate has been adjusted upward to $86.00 per barrel. These revisions come as the market faces persistent security challenges in the Middle East and a lack of clear diplomatic resolutions.
The analysis suggests that the global energy sector is transitioning from a focus on supply chain efficiency to one of resilience. Governments and consumers are reportedly building larger inventories and diversifying suppliers to mitigate risks, which supports a higher long-term price floor. Standard Chartered notes that thin supply buffers make prices highly sensitive to disruptions. Even with potential diplomatic efforts, the firm anticipates that periodic regional tensions will maintain a risk premium on crude through 2027.
In the refined products sector, diesel prices have reached record levels, prompting discussions regarding U.S. policy interventions. While some officials have considered an export ban to protect domestic supplies during harvest seasons, others warn such a move could tighten global fuel markets and harm refining economics. Meanwhile, European natural gas prices recently hit a monthly low due to weaker demand in Asia, despite warnings from EU officials regarding potential winter supply risks and the need for demand reduction.
Helena Marsh — Energy Markets Editor. Helena covers crude, refined products and the trading houses that move them, with a focus on price formation in the Mediterranean and Black Sea.
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