‘Secure capacity’ says RXO as it warns of further haulage rate rises

U.S. trucking spot rates experienced a significant surge during the second quarter and are projected to rise further through the end of the year, according to a report from The Loadstar. Data from RXO indicates that pricing jumped 32.4% year-on-year in the second quarter, marking a sharp acceleration from the previous period. The company warns that a looming peak season will likely place additional upward pressure on costs across the domestic haulage market.

Capacity in the sector is tightening due to a federal initiative aimed at enforcing stricter licensing and language requirements for commercial drivers. RXO strategy officer Jared Weisfeld noted that this campaign could remove approximately 200,000 drivers from the interstate market, representing roughly 5% of active license holders. This regulatory shift is cited as one of the most significant structural changes to the American carrier landscape in several decades.

While spot pricing has climbed for nine consecutive quarters, demand for shipping remains relatively low. Figures from the Cass Index show a 5% year-on-year decline in volume for July. However, the gap between spot and contract rates is widening, leading to increased volatility. Shippers are currently being advised to lock in capacity now to avoid further disruption, as tender rejection rates have reached their highest levels since 2022.

Operating costs for haulage companies have risen nearly 30% since the last peak cycle, covering expenses such as insurance and tires. Although orders for new trucks are increasing, these are largely intended to replace aging equipment rather than expand fleet sizes. Low margins and high overhead continue to pressure carrier profitability, despite the rising rates charged to customers in both the spot and contract markets.